Yes, it's time for the Winter Meetings and I'm moist, nay, DRENCHED! I love this time a year, as free agents, players, and GMs meet to decide the future of their teams going forward. There are trades, big signings, and rumors swirling for an entire week. Now we are already midway through with the week and there have already been some trades and deals done.
Now everybody knows the big names available on the FA market (Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, and John Lackey), but I want to take this opportunity to take a look at some free agents that are a little off the radar. These guys can be had for fairly cheap and offer good value. Now these may not be fits for the Sox, but it's my damn blog and I can write about whatever I want. For this, I am thinking of a Small Market team that can have a shot at making the playoffs but need a couple more pieces to make that happen and need to do it for cheap (if you need a real frame of reference, think the SF Giants). They are generally risks based on age, performance, or health, however to win a World Series, you need to take risks.
Kyle's Intriguing Free Agents
Nick Johnson
Yes, let's start with Nick. There's a lot not to like about Nicky. He's a 1st baseman that doesn't hit for a lot of power. He's only eclipsed 600 Plate Appearances once in his career, making him a durability/injury risk. His career average is under .280.
Then again, there is a ton to like about him. He gives you top-level (though not Gold Glove) defense at the position. His CAREER On Base Percentage is over .400! He walks more than he strikes out. And he's only 31 years old giving him a few more years of prime before the decline.
The beautiful thing about NJ is this - stick him in the #2 spot in your order, and you have a guy on base 40% of the time, leading up to your two big hitters. Naturally, you need a team who has those hitters to make him worthwhile in that slot. That said, he should come pretty cheap to any team who is willing to give him 5 years. I think 4-5 years at $7M/yr should nab him. If you were more frugal you might try a deal laced with incentives based on Plate Appearances.
Mike Cameron
This guy might be the most underrated CF of his generation. The guy has posted an OPS+ (which is OPS/League OPS) over 100 (better than average) EVERY YEAR of his career. At the same time, he has given elite (GG) defense EVERY year. So you're getting an above average hitter who takes runs away.
Now he is 37 years old, but his production has continued and hasn't dropped off. There are plenty of guys who continue to produce into their late 30's, and so far it looks like he is one of them. What is there not to like about a guy like Cameron. In short, he makes almost any team instantly better and can come at a short price. For a guy this old, don't you think 2 years for $6M/yr gets him?
Ben Sheets
Ben sat out all of last year with an elbow injury after throwing 198 innings in 2008. In that season, he was too hurt to throw in the playoffs, taking out the second best pitcher in the Brewers rotation crippling them. The last time he tossed over 200 innings was 2004. He is as injury prone as pitchers come: inner ear infections, bulging discs and the aforementioned arm trouble all appear on the radar.
But man does he have stuff and control. He can locate his fastball and has a back breaking curve. Sheets is also only 31. Really, he wants to nab himself a one year deal with incentives to prove that he is still effective. Once he does that, he should be able to nab a 4-5 year deal for guaranteed money. Also, since he is not throwing beforehand, he needs a one year deal. If you are a team that is close to the playoffs and needs a bump up in the rotation, Sheets could come in and be your #2 guy.
Rich Harden
I could pretty much say "see Ben Sheets" and end it here. But there are differences between the two. First off, Harden is more talented as a pitcher, period. Second, Harden has NEVER pitched over 200 innings. In fact, he's only gone over 150 once (2004) when he was 22. Third, he's younger. He'll be 28 next year, making him three years younger than Sheets, but that's 3 years he'll be in his prime, while Sheets is nearly out of his.
So what with Harden. His skill requires you to pay him a lot of money. His durability is really going to put teams off. So where does he fall? Some team has got to take a chance on him, and I would consider it. The pricetag is so hard to pin down, but how do you not at least kick the tires on this guy? He's got to be the most talented pitcher on the market.
Jim Thome
Should it be a hard sell for a guy who has hit 564 career homeruns? Well Thome is going to be 39 last year and is coming off of his first EVER season with 100+ games an a slugging percentage under .500. Thome is a slugger at heart - a lot of walks, a lot of strikeouts and a lot of homeruns. Also, Thome is strictly a DH at this point. So there's got to be an AL team looking to take him on.
To be honest, I think Thome wants to get to 600 HRs. If he goes one more full season, he's got a fair chance of hitting that. If he gets regular at bats then he should be able to get 30+ HRs this year and that will put him right there. I'm sure he'll play for the highest bidder, but at this point I think he'd play for free.
Well that's it for now. I might revisit this later with Justin Douchebaggererererer, Carlos Delgado, Pedro Martinez, Coco Crisp, Brett Myers, and Mark DeRosa.
Joke of the Day: What's the difference between an SUV and a Nike Golf Ball? Tiger can drive a Nike Golf Ball 300 yards without hitting a tree - BOOM!
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Monday, October 12, 2009
Sox Offense for 2010
A lot of todo is being made and will continue to be made about the Red Sox offense this year. And such will be the subject of my return-to-the-blogosphere post. Now, in a series where the Red Sox offense and bullpen really let them down, you can only expect the "experts" and pundits to clamor for a revamping of the offense. The bullpen really had a great year and I don't see much being made of that. That said, I am also not a believer in the "one closer" thing. But that is a discussion for another time.
The offense looked suspect down the stretch and played awful in the playoffs. So where do we upgrade. I'd like to take a quick look - position by position - by the numbers for this season.
Catcher
The catcher duties were split between Varitek and Martinez. However, going into next season we can probably expect V-Mart to be the (nearly) every day catcher with Varitek and Lowell splitting the extra time. Let's look at V-Mart's numbers:
Martinez: 588 AB; 178 H; 88 R; 23 HR; 108 RBI; .303/.381/.480
Where an OPS of .861 is nothing to write home about, for a catcher you are not going to find better. Also, I would bet that we won't be paying $5M for 'Tek for next year. There's a decent chance that we go with V-Mart and Kottaras, however if we are going to let Tek catch two games out of the rotation and on those days shifting Youk over to third and letting Mart playing 1st, that makes sense. You could do worse than that. That said, we are not going to get an improvement for split time if we believe that Martinez cannot catch every day. Of course, after this year, Mart is done in Boston and we'll be trying to sign Mr. Mauer.
First Base
Youkilis has been manning both infield corners for the Sox over the last couple of years. Let's just take a quick look at his stats:
Youkilis: 491 AB; 150 H; 99 R; 27 HR; 94 RBI; .305/.413/.548
Youkilis is signed through 2012 with an option for 2013 so Youilis is not going anywhere. Besides, his OBP ranked 2nd in the AL (behind Mauer), 5th in slugging, and 2nd in OPS. So let's just move right along.
Second Base
Dustin Pedroia had a bit of a hangover after his MVP year in 2008. However, the scrappy second baseman did not put up shabby numbers. Let us take a quick look.
Pedroia: 626 AB; 185 H; 115 R; 15 HR; 72 RBI; 20 SB; 8 CS; .296/.371/.447
Pedroia's numbers were fine this year, though not quite as good as last year. He is signed for a fair price through 2013 with an option for 2014. So we could end this conversation here. But I can't let this go without a little more analysis. Pedroia was 2nd in OBP among AL second basemen and 4th in OPS. This is in a league that featured studs like Ben Zobrist, Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts, Aaron Hill, and Alberto Callaspo. That said, we are not moving away from Pedey.
Third Base
So we are looking at Mike Lowell here.
Mike Lowell: 445 AB; 129 H;, 54 R; 17 HR; 75 RBI; .290/.337/.474
Where these numbers aren't bad, there are some things working against Lowell here. First, those are not great corner infield numbers. They are not bad, though, and plenty of teams wouldn't mind having him, but probably not for the $12M he is slated to make next year. However, that will be the last year of his contract, and if the right deal comes along, the Sox might find some space to upgrade.
Short Stop
Shortstop for the Sox has been a bit of a revolving door this season. We went with Nick Green for a while, but he is not of Major League Caliber, offensively or defensively. He has no place on the roster next year. Jed Lowrie looked nothing like a major league hitter this year, hitting .147 in 68 at bats, and is average-ish in the field. Alex Gonzalez fared much better, with a respectable line of .284/.316/.453 although those numbers belie his true hitting ability. His career average is .247 and OBP an unsightly .294. Does he earn it with his stellar defense? Probably. However, here is another place we can afford an upgrade however there are few names out there. Orlando Cabrera, and Miguel Tejada head the list. Cabrera might be the most obvious name here, and with a career OPS of .720 (.275 BA) he has the combination of offense and defense that could fit in here.
You'll notice the lack of true stats here. This is the toughest call to make and I am not sure how to call it yet. The Sox getting Cabrera I think would make the most sense, but we will revisit this later in the offseason.
Outfield
The outfield this season was manned by J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Canadian Jason Bay. Bay is in the last year of his contract and didn't sign an extension. Here are the numbers:
Drew: 452 AB; 126 H; 84 R; 24 HR; 68 RBI; .279/.392/.522
Ellsbury: 624 AB; 188 H; 94 R; 8 HR; 10 3B; 70 SB; 12 CS; .301/.355/.415
Bay: 531 AB; 142 H; 103 R; 36 HR; 119 RBI; 13 SB; 3 CS; .267/.384/.537
I have so much hatred here. Mostly, I hate J.D. Drew and yet his end-of-the season numbers look pretty good. His .392 OBP is good enough for 9th in the AL, and his OPS is 10th. Jason Bay checks in 9th in OPS in the AL, while Ellsbury lead the league in steals while batting over .300. So where do we deviate here? We could let Jay-Bay walk and go after a Matt Holliday. However you'll note that Holliday did not fare well in Oakland. I think we'll end up seeing Bay resign, for lack of better options and get Drew money.
DH
David Ortiz struggled mightily this year from the DH slot and got off to a super-slow start. Let's see where his stats ended up:
Ortiz: 541 AB; 129 H; 77 R; 99 RBI; .238/.332/.462
The OPS under .800 is a big no-no for a DH in a big-market city. Now everyone has been hearing "Papi is done" all year. But let me throw some numbers out there. Here are his numbers from June 1 to the end of the year:
351 AB; 93 H; 27 HR; 78 RBI; .264/.356/.555
Those numbers look pretty good. If he could pull that through the whole year he would have had more than 40 HR, and more than 120 RBI while boasting an OPS over .900. No one would talk about getting rid of THAT guy, who is only on the books for $12.5M. He seems to be fully healed from wrist surgery and I would be surprised if they replaced him. Epstein is clever enough to know this and we won't get rid of Papi. This isn't a loyalty thing, this is a talented hitter who will continue to get the opportunity to hit.
So Where Do We Upgrade?
Well, the only question marks are at SS and at the corner infield. At SS, there is too much to worry about and taking a strong defender would be the best play. In fact, I would like to see them hang on to Alex Gonzalez. At corner infield, we would have to replace Lowell.
Lowell: 445 AB; 129 H; 54 R; 17 HR; 75 RBI; .290/.337/.474
Those numbers really aren't bad. If he played a full season he is probably a 20+ HR, 100+ RBI guy. Furthermore if he could manage to run still, he'd have some more infield hits and ground into fewer DPs. His speed is killing and affecting his defense, too. To upgrade here in the free agent market (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/2010-mlb-free-a.html) we would be looking at a guy like Chone Figgins or Adrien Beltre. Neither of those are huge upgrades over Lowell at the plate, though Figgins is intriguing. To upgrade at First Base there is Adam LaRoche - but not a great upgrade.
Through the trade market, it is known that Prince Fielder and Adrien Gonzalez are on the block. But the question of cost to obtain these guys is crazy. We could package a deal with Casey Kotchman, Mike Lowell, Michael Bowden, and cash and that wouldn't be enough. Then who do we add? Lars Anderson is coming off a tough year and not looking great against advanced pitching. Trading off Tazawa in this deal would zap the major-league ready minor league pitching talent (which is replaceable via free agency, given).
I just don't see the Sox making any offensive moves this offseason. Once they sign a LF (Bay, most likely) they will just look to round out the bench and perhaps address the pitching... but more on that later.
The offense looked suspect down the stretch and played awful in the playoffs. So where do we upgrade. I'd like to take a quick look - position by position - by the numbers for this season.
Catcher
The catcher duties were split between Varitek and Martinez. However, going into next season we can probably expect V-Mart to be the (nearly) every day catcher with Varitek and Lowell splitting the extra time. Let's look at V-Mart's numbers:
Martinez: 588 AB; 178 H; 88 R; 23 HR; 108 RBI; .303/.381/.480
Where an OPS of .861 is nothing to write home about, for a catcher you are not going to find better. Also, I would bet that we won't be paying $5M for 'Tek for next year. There's a decent chance that we go with V-Mart and Kottaras, however if we are going to let Tek catch two games out of the rotation and on those days shifting Youk over to third and letting Mart playing 1st, that makes sense. You could do worse than that. That said, we are not going to get an improvement for split time if we believe that Martinez cannot catch every day. Of course, after this year, Mart is done in Boston and we'll be trying to sign Mr. Mauer.
First Base
Youkilis has been manning both infield corners for the Sox over the last couple of years. Let's just take a quick look at his stats:
Youkilis: 491 AB; 150 H; 99 R; 27 HR; 94 RBI; .305/.413/.548
Youkilis is signed through 2012 with an option for 2013 so Youilis is not going anywhere. Besides, his OBP ranked 2nd in the AL (behind Mauer), 5th in slugging, and 2nd in OPS. So let's just move right along.
Second Base
Dustin Pedroia had a bit of a hangover after his MVP year in 2008. However, the scrappy second baseman did not put up shabby numbers. Let us take a quick look.
Pedroia: 626 AB; 185 H; 115 R; 15 HR; 72 RBI; 20 SB; 8 CS; .296/.371/.447
Pedroia's numbers were fine this year, though not quite as good as last year. He is signed for a fair price through 2013 with an option for 2014. So we could end this conversation here. But I can't let this go without a little more analysis. Pedroia was 2nd in OBP among AL second basemen and 4th in OPS. This is in a league that featured studs like Ben Zobrist, Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts, Aaron Hill, and Alberto Callaspo. That said, we are not moving away from Pedey.
Third Base
So we are looking at Mike Lowell here.
Mike Lowell: 445 AB; 129 H;, 54 R; 17 HR; 75 RBI; .290/.337/.474
Where these numbers aren't bad, there are some things working against Lowell here. First, those are not great corner infield numbers. They are not bad, though, and plenty of teams wouldn't mind having him, but probably not for the $12M he is slated to make next year. However, that will be the last year of his contract, and if the right deal comes along, the Sox might find some space to upgrade.
Short Stop
Shortstop for the Sox has been a bit of a revolving door this season. We went with Nick Green for a while, but he is not of Major League Caliber, offensively or defensively. He has no place on the roster next year. Jed Lowrie looked nothing like a major league hitter this year, hitting .147 in 68 at bats, and is average-ish in the field. Alex Gonzalez fared much better, with a respectable line of .284/.316/.453 although those numbers belie his true hitting ability. His career average is .247 and OBP an unsightly .294. Does he earn it with his stellar defense? Probably. However, here is another place we can afford an upgrade however there are few names out there. Orlando Cabrera, and Miguel Tejada head the list. Cabrera might be the most obvious name here, and with a career OPS of .720 (.275 BA) he has the combination of offense and defense that could fit in here.
You'll notice the lack of true stats here. This is the toughest call to make and I am not sure how to call it yet. The Sox getting Cabrera I think would make the most sense, but we will revisit this later in the offseason.
Outfield
The outfield this season was manned by J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Canadian Jason Bay. Bay is in the last year of his contract and didn't sign an extension. Here are the numbers:
Drew: 452 AB; 126 H; 84 R; 24 HR; 68 RBI; .279/.392/.522
Ellsbury: 624 AB; 188 H; 94 R; 8 HR; 10 3B; 70 SB; 12 CS; .301/.355/.415
Bay: 531 AB; 142 H; 103 R; 36 HR; 119 RBI; 13 SB; 3 CS; .267/.384/.537
I have so much hatred here. Mostly, I hate J.D. Drew and yet his end-of-the season numbers look pretty good. His .392 OBP is good enough for 9th in the AL, and his OPS is 10th. Jason Bay checks in 9th in OPS in the AL, while Ellsbury lead the league in steals while batting over .300. So where do we deviate here? We could let Jay-Bay walk and go after a Matt Holliday. However you'll note that Holliday did not fare well in Oakland. I think we'll end up seeing Bay resign, for lack of better options and get Drew money.
DH
David Ortiz struggled mightily this year from the DH slot and got off to a super-slow start. Let's see where his stats ended up:
Ortiz: 541 AB; 129 H; 77 R; 99 RBI; .238/.332/.462
The OPS under .800 is a big no-no for a DH in a big-market city. Now everyone has been hearing "Papi is done" all year. But let me throw some numbers out there. Here are his numbers from June 1 to the end of the year:
351 AB; 93 H; 27 HR; 78 RBI; .264/.356/.555
Those numbers look pretty good. If he could pull that through the whole year he would have had more than 40 HR, and more than 120 RBI while boasting an OPS over .900. No one would talk about getting rid of THAT guy, who is only on the books for $12.5M. He seems to be fully healed from wrist surgery and I would be surprised if they replaced him. Epstein is clever enough to know this and we won't get rid of Papi. This isn't a loyalty thing, this is a talented hitter who will continue to get the opportunity to hit.
So Where Do We Upgrade?
Well, the only question marks are at SS and at the corner infield. At SS, there is too much to worry about and taking a strong defender would be the best play. In fact, I would like to see them hang on to Alex Gonzalez. At corner infield, we would have to replace Lowell.
Lowell: 445 AB; 129 H; 54 R; 17 HR; 75 RBI; .290/.337/.474
Those numbers really aren't bad. If he played a full season he is probably a 20+ HR, 100+ RBI guy. Furthermore if he could manage to run still, he'd have some more infield hits and ground into fewer DPs. His speed is killing and affecting his defense, too. To upgrade here in the free agent market (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/2010-mlb-free-a.html) we would be looking at a guy like Chone Figgins or Adrien Beltre. Neither of those are huge upgrades over Lowell at the plate, though Figgins is intriguing. To upgrade at First Base there is Adam LaRoche - but not a great upgrade.
Through the trade market, it is known that Prince Fielder and Adrien Gonzalez are on the block. But the question of cost to obtain these guys is crazy. We could package a deal with Casey Kotchman, Mike Lowell, Michael Bowden, and cash and that wouldn't be enough. Then who do we add? Lars Anderson is coming off a tough year and not looking great against advanced pitching. Trading off Tazawa in this deal would zap the major-league ready minor league pitching talent (which is replaceable via free agency, given).
I just don't see the Sox making any offensive moves this offseason. Once they sign a LF (Bay, most likely) they will just look to round out the bench and perhaps address the pitching... but more on that later.
VendorBall is Back - New Information
To all who may read this blog. I am coming back. Dan Z. has been off doing some of the awesome design things he does and has been quite busy, and I have been on and off busy with work, moving, and various other things. However, I am missing digging into sports. My fan-hood demands a vehicle to make sure I am doing my diligence work - checking rosters, running stats, and staying on top of rumors. And so, heavy-hearted at the loss of Dan as co-owner*, I return to write about the Boston Sports Scene. I plan on focusing my attention mostly on the Red Sox, but you can expect some Bruins, C's, and Pats (especially for my love of Mr. Thomas Brady).
Friday, February 13, 2009
WE'RE BACK, BABY!
VendorBall is announcing its official return today!
Stay tuned as articles will start to flow this afternoon!
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