Another One Run Loss

Please excuse me if I don't recap the game last night. The fact is, I was so disturbed by it that I don't want to recall the play-by-play, but let it suffice to say the Sox lost in walkoff fashion, 2-1. Another 1-run loss to the Rays. Oh, you haven't been keeping track. Well allow me to shed some light on this matter, and you'll realize where my disgust and worry is coming from (data from www.mlb.com).

Overall
Overall the Red Sox are 18-22 in one run games. The losing record does not concern me, in fact only the White Sox at 31-17 posted a winning record in 1-run games and went on to win the World Series since 2004. The records are below:

Red Sox, 2004: 14-17
White Sox, 2005: 31-17
Cardinals, 2006: 21-22
Red Sox, 2007: 22-24

So recent data tells us that a team does not need a winning record in 1-run games in order to win the World Series. So why does the Sox record against the Rays in close games (which I haven't mentioned) deserving of a whole column!? Well, if the Sox do particularly poorly in one-run games against the Rays and take the Wild Card, they will be forced to face the Angels instead of the NL Central Team (Chicago or Minnesota). Call me crazy, but that Angels team is far too solid to want to play in a best-of-5 series.

This Year: Sox vs. Rays
This year, the Red Sox are (please, brace yourself, you're not expecting this) 0-6 agains the Rays in 1-run games. Let me say this again with a different set of words. Out of the 17 games played thus far between the Red Sox and the Rays (1 remaining) there have been 6 games decided by one run (roughly a third). The Red Sox have lost ALL OF THESE GAMES. That is an abysmal statistic. Even with a 3-3 split, the Sox would be 2 games up in the East instead of 1 game back. Let's expand the statistic to include 2-run games. In that case the Sox are 0-8. Oh yes, in 8/17 games (a little less than half) the Sox have been within 2 runs of winning and managed to lose.

A couple more stats
Out of the 6 one run losses, relievers are responsible for 5 of them (2 by Timlin, 1 by Papelbon, Masterson, and Hansen). This means in 5 of these games, the Sox either had the lead or were tied going into the bullpen where the Rays held them off. In fact, looking at the box scores, they had the lead at one point in EVERY 1-run loss given up by the bullpen.

Of these games (the 6 1-run games), Papelbon only appeared in the game he lost. In another the lead was given up too early to have him in by conventional wisdom (which I disagree with, but that's another story). So we have three games, lost in the 8th inning or later where the best pitcher was left on the bench. And let's make that 4 for the 14 inning loss on the 10th that was a 2-run loss.

Closing
The Red Sox have not shown the ability to pull off a close game with the Rays and that scares me. They could have to play the Angels in the first round - not who you want to see. And what if we get in a playoff situation with the Rays where we are playing all kinds of close games?
Now I know you're reading the post below this one wondering where my confidence has gone for the Sox. Here's another stat - after beating the Sox by 1-run, the Rays are undefeated for the remainder of that series. They pull off two wins against the Sox AGAIN, this pulls up their confidence, and maybe the ring off a few more wins and actually hang on for the East. Do I think it's going to happen? Well, they face the reeling Twins, the abysmal Orioles, and the underperforming Tigers to end the season. The Sox face the charging (though pointlessly) Blue Jays, then come for the Indians (who I maintain is a better team than their record shows) and Cy Young shoe in Cliff Lee, and finish off with the Yankees... and if you think the Yankees won't be playing the Sox hard just because their out of the playoff mix, please leave this blog and never come back.

So the schedule gives the Rays hope. The Sox needed last nights win to go up 1 game in the standings. The Sox needed to demoralize this team a little and then come and let Wakefield do what he does best at Tropicana. They needed the sweep and yesterday, I would have guaranteed they'd have gotten it. Today they do not have it and are in trouble. The Wild Card is fine, but that's not the road I want this team to take to the playoffs. Not by a long shot. I think the Rays are still only good for one round in the playoffs, and I still like the Beckett-Lester-Matsuzaka rotation over anything anyone else will throw in the AL (Including the Angels' Santana-Saunders-Lackey rotation). So I do like the Sox chances, but last night annoyed me and I'm a little down. I think we need a 24-2 win tonight to decimiate this team and especially their bullpen to get back on track. Let's see how it goes - opening pitch in 5 minutes.

This post was written by Kyle "Commander Coalfire Palin" Baxter

Red Sox 13 - Rays 5

And somehow this feels a little more familiar. Not the Red Sox annihilating Scott Kazmir, that was a little odd, but with the win the Red Sox move into a tie for first place. Yes, we know, the Sox are still one back in the loss column, but they were 5.5 games behind the Rays at the start of September. That's right, folks, the Rays are finally floundering (oh yes, pun INtended). It's been hard to root against Tampa Bay - the young team finally coming together to put a run together for long enough to potentially make a World Series run and not to mention the classic, lovable worst-to-first scenario. However, they were becoming too pesky and getting in the way of my team, and as much as I love an underdog, I LOVE the Sox.

The game was an offensive outburst with David Ortiz launching a 3-run homerun in the bottom of the first before Kazmir recorded an out. Two batters later Lowell belted a solo shot and the Sox were out in front 4-0. That proved to be enough for road-warrior Matsuzaka who improved to 8-0 on the road with today's win. In all, the Sox hit 6 home runs (Papi, Lowell, Bay, Youkie, Tek, and Ellsbury all had one), including Bay's third-catwalk-ground-rule-homer. All the while, Dice-K doing what Dice-K does best: throwing 4,254* pitches over 5 innings with 7 strikeouts and (amazingly, only) two walks.

Slightly overlooked (eh not really), Timlin's scoreless, 8-pitch 8th inning was his 1,050th appearance putting him first all-time amongst right-handed relief pitchers. He still trails all-time appearance leader Jessie Orosco by 198 appearances, but even Timlin knows he won't be able to catch him. Timlin has been struggling this year, posting a 5.96 ERA, and notably losing the 14-inning marathon game against the Rays last week. However, Sox fans will always remember 2004 (no matter how cliche that phrase has become) and how safe we felt once we heard Black Betty roar over the Fenway speakers. In those years, if we could get to Timlin, we were going to be ok. So go Timlin!

An interesting side-plot with the Sox reclaiming a piece of the AL East is how the Rays are going to handle it. The youth of the Rays, which has made them an exciting team is now working against them, as they have to pick themselves up by the bootstraps and avoid a Milwaukee/San Diego situation from 2007 (where the Rockies came out of nowhere to capture the Wild Card). But they're young, do they know how to lower their shoulders and run through this? Well, they're 7 games up on the Twinkies and 9 up on the Yanks with two weeks left in the season, and both teams face the Sox who are still fighting for a playoff spot. So, I think we'll see the Rays in the playoffs for the first time in their franchise's history, but they will be a wild card team and I'm not expecting much. Too young, peaked too early, but they're still a fun team and I look forward to more battles with them in the coming years.

One more thing. When my father and I saw Bay launch his homerun we had this exchange.

Kyle: Wow, Kazmir does not have it today.
Dad: Think he has money on the game?
Kyle: Naw, he's making too much money for that.
Dad: You sure he's not making minimum?
Kyle: ... Yeah but he's in arbitration.

Looking this up - Kazmir is making $3.785 Mil this year (Cot's Baseball contracts), and it is his first year making over the MLB minimum which is under .5 Mil.

Don't think about this too much.

*Note: In this posting 4,254 = 101.


This post was written by flamboyant heterosexual, Kyle Baxter.

Patriots 19 - Jets 10

Well, hopefully you caught the Patriots 19-10 win yesterday, because it showed a fair amount about the Patriots-without-Tom-Brady. And as the owners of this particular blog expected, they looked like a playoff contender. Obviously the offense is going to suffer a bit without Brady. Indeed, throughout the game they suffered from a lack of efficiency and seemed a little tentative. However, the short dump passes, quick slants, and varied running game were exactly how Brady began running the Patriots offense, so it is what we expected. Of course Belichick is not going to put the stress of winning on a new quarterback - that will fall on the experienced players. That experienced group is the Defense.

It has been reported that when Brady went down, Rodney Harrison looked at Tedy Bruschi and Richard Seymour and said "Let's get it done." The Patriots defense -which has been consistently criticized for being too old - is now the key for the 2008 team. They are experienced, they know how to win and (perhaps more importantly) how to lose and bounce back. The defense knows they need to step up, and they did just that this week, holding the Jets to 256 yards of total offense and 10 points. Any time a defense does that, you can be sure Belichick and this offense will manufacture 11+ points for the victory. Of course, it won't always be so easy for the defense - the Jets' offense is not the powerhouse of the AFC, but it is doable, and the Defense is salavating at the opportunity.

The D did look a little weak at times against the run, however the Jets' backs never sprung for a 20+ yard gain, and the bend-but-don't-break defense held as Pats Fans have come to expect. The Pats did look exactly like the Pats in the passing games. Giving up enough 3rd down conversions to piss me off, but buckling down when it mattered, and getting enough stops to win, as well as getting a key interception in the third quarter which Cassel and the offense converted into a touchdown. Last season, a 19-10 win would have been an underperformance, but this season, we'll take the win, period.

Coming up next, the Patriots take on the Dolphins. The Fins look like a team that has improved over last year, but then again, when you go 1-15, being able to take the field and give the allusion that you're competing is an improvement. Pats fans should be happy that they don't have to face a talented team until October 12 (Chargers). The Pats get the leisure of facing the Phins, then a bye week, then the 49ers before having to face off against a team with talent. But the Chargers aren't playing well (although they should have beaten Denver last night, and the refs know it), and that could quickly turn into a winnable game.

So the Patriots performed rather exactly how the Vendorball staff thought. Good defense, good special teams, and an offense that played well enough to win and will be improving. Call us gurus, call us soothsayers, call us Marty McFly, but never call us wrong.


Written by VendorBall's resident ginger: Kyle Baxter