Another One Run Loss

Please excuse me if I don't recap the game last night. The fact is, I was so disturbed by it that I don't want to recall the play-by-play, but let it suffice to say the Sox lost in walkoff fashion, 2-1. Another 1-run loss to the Rays. Oh, you haven't been keeping track. Well allow me to shed some light on this matter, and you'll realize where my disgust and worry is coming from (data from www.mlb.com).

Overall
Overall the Red Sox are 18-22 in one run games. The losing record does not concern me, in fact only the White Sox at 31-17 posted a winning record in 1-run games and went on to win the World Series since 2004. The records are below:

Red Sox, 2004: 14-17
White Sox, 2005: 31-17
Cardinals, 2006: 21-22
Red Sox, 2007: 22-24

So recent data tells us that a team does not need a winning record in 1-run games in order to win the World Series. So why does the Sox record against the Rays in close games (which I haven't mentioned) deserving of a whole column!? Well, if the Sox do particularly poorly in one-run games against the Rays and take the Wild Card, they will be forced to face the Angels instead of the NL Central Team (Chicago or Minnesota). Call me crazy, but that Angels team is far too solid to want to play in a best-of-5 series.

This Year: Sox vs. Rays
This year, the Red Sox are (please, brace yourself, you're not expecting this) 0-6 agains the Rays in 1-run games. Let me say this again with a different set of words. Out of the 17 games played thus far between the Red Sox and the Rays (1 remaining) there have been 6 games decided by one run (roughly a third). The Red Sox have lost ALL OF THESE GAMES. That is an abysmal statistic. Even with a 3-3 split, the Sox would be 2 games up in the East instead of 1 game back. Let's expand the statistic to include 2-run games. In that case the Sox are 0-8. Oh yes, in 8/17 games (a little less than half) the Sox have been within 2 runs of winning and managed to lose.

A couple more stats
Out of the 6 one run losses, relievers are responsible for 5 of them (2 by Timlin, 1 by Papelbon, Masterson, and Hansen). This means in 5 of these games, the Sox either had the lead or were tied going into the bullpen where the Rays held them off. In fact, looking at the box scores, they had the lead at one point in EVERY 1-run loss given up by the bullpen.

Of these games (the 6 1-run games), Papelbon only appeared in the game he lost. In another the lead was given up too early to have him in by conventional wisdom (which I disagree with, but that's another story). So we have three games, lost in the 8th inning or later where the best pitcher was left on the bench. And let's make that 4 for the 14 inning loss on the 10th that was a 2-run loss.

Closing
The Red Sox have not shown the ability to pull off a close game with the Rays and that scares me. They could have to play the Angels in the first round - not who you want to see. And what if we get in a playoff situation with the Rays where we are playing all kinds of close games?
Now I know you're reading the post below this one wondering where my confidence has gone for the Sox. Here's another stat - after beating the Sox by 1-run, the Rays are undefeated for the remainder of that series. They pull off two wins against the Sox AGAIN, this pulls up their confidence, and maybe the ring off a few more wins and actually hang on for the East. Do I think it's going to happen? Well, they face the reeling Twins, the abysmal Orioles, and the underperforming Tigers to end the season. The Sox face the charging (though pointlessly) Blue Jays, then come for the Indians (who I maintain is a better team than their record shows) and Cy Young shoe in Cliff Lee, and finish off with the Yankees... and if you think the Yankees won't be playing the Sox hard just because their out of the playoff mix, please leave this blog and never come back.

So the schedule gives the Rays hope. The Sox needed last nights win to go up 1 game in the standings. The Sox needed to demoralize this team a little and then come and let Wakefield do what he does best at Tropicana. They needed the sweep and yesterday, I would have guaranteed they'd have gotten it. Today they do not have it and are in trouble. The Wild Card is fine, but that's not the road I want this team to take to the playoffs. Not by a long shot. I think the Rays are still only good for one round in the playoffs, and I still like the Beckett-Lester-Matsuzaka rotation over anything anyone else will throw in the AL (Including the Angels' Santana-Saunders-Lackey rotation). So I do like the Sox chances, but last night annoyed me and I'm a little down. I think we need a 24-2 win tonight to decimiate this team and especially their bullpen to get back on track. Let's see how it goes - opening pitch in 5 minutes.

This post was written by Kyle "Commander Coalfire Palin" Baxter