Wednesday, December 9, 2009

WINTER MEETINGS!

Yes, it's time for the Winter Meetings and I'm moist, nay, DRENCHED! I love this time a year, as free agents, players, and GMs meet to decide the future of their teams going forward. There are trades, big signings, and rumors swirling for an entire week. Now we are already midway through with the week and there have already been some trades and deals done.

Now everybody knows the big names available on the FA market (Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, and John Lackey), but I want to take this opportunity to take a look at some free agents that are a little off the radar. These guys can be had for fairly cheap and offer good value. Now these may not be fits for the Sox, but it's my damn blog and I can write about whatever I want. For this, I am thinking of a Small Market team that can have a shot at making the playoffs but need a couple more pieces to make that happen and need to do it for cheap (if you need a real frame of reference, think the SF Giants). They are generally risks based on age, performance, or health, however to win a World Series, you need to take risks.


Kyle's Intriguing Free Agents


Nick Johnson

Yes, let's start with Nick. There's a lot not to like about Nicky. He's a 1st baseman that doesn't hit for a lot of power. He's only eclipsed 600 Plate Appearances once in his career, making him a durability/injury risk. His career average is under .280.

Then again, there is a ton to like about him. He gives you top-level (though not Gold Glove) defense at the position. His CAREER On Base Percentage is over .400! He walks more than he strikes out. And he's only 31 years old giving him a few more years of prime before the decline.

The beautiful thing about NJ is this - stick him in the #2 spot in your order, and you have a guy on base 40% of the time, leading up to your two big hitters. Naturally, you need a team who has those hitters to make him worthwhile in that slot. That said, he should come pretty cheap to any team who is willing to give him 5 years. I think 4-5 years at $7M/yr should nab him. If you were more frugal you might try a deal laced with incentives based on Plate Appearances.


Mike Cameron

This guy might be the most underrated CF of his generation. The guy has posted an OPS+ (which is OPS/League OPS) over 100 (better than average) EVERY YEAR of his career. At the same time, he has given elite (GG) defense EVERY year. So you're getting an above average hitter who takes runs away.

Now he is 37 years old, but his production has continued and hasn't dropped off. There are plenty of guys who continue to produce into their late 30's, and so far it looks like he is one of them. What is there not to like about a guy like Cameron. In short, he makes almost any team instantly better and can come at a short price. For a guy this old, don't you think 2 years for $6M/yr gets him?


Ben Sheets

Ben sat out all of last year with an elbow injury after throwing 198 innings in 2008. In that season, he was too hurt to throw in the playoffs, taking out the second best pitcher in the Brewers rotation crippling them. The last time he tossed over 200 innings was 2004. He is as injury prone as pitchers come: inner ear infections, bulging discs and the aforementioned arm trouble all appear on the radar.

But man does he have stuff and control. He can locate his fastball and has a back breaking curve. Sheets is also only 31. Really, he wants to nab himself a one year deal with incentives to prove that he is still effective. Once he does that, he should be able to nab a 4-5 year deal for guaranteed money. Also, since he is not throwing beforehand, he needs a one year deal. If you are a team that is close to the playoffs and needs a bump up in the rotation, Sheets could come in and be your #2 guy.


Rich Harden

I could pretty much say "see Ben Sheets" and end it here. But there are differences between the two. First off, Harden is more talented as a pitcher, period. Second, Harden has NEVER pitched over 200 innings. In fact, he's only gone over 150 once (2004) when he was 22. Third, he's younger. He'll be 28 next year, making him three years younger than Sheets, but that's 3 years he'll be in his prime, while Sheets is nearly out of his.

So what with Harden. His skill requires you to pay him a lot of money. His durability is really going to put teams off. So where does he fall? Some team has got to take a chance on him, and I would consider it. The pricetag is so hard to pin down, but how do you not at least kick the tires on this guy? He's got to be the most talented pitcher on the market.


Jim Thome

Should it be a hard sell for a guy who has hit 564 career homeruns? Well Thome is going to be 39 last year and is coming off of his first EVER season with 100+ games an a slugging percentage under .500. Thome is a slugger at heart - a lot of walks, a lot of strikeouts and a lot of homeruns. Also, Thome is strictly a DH at this point. So there's got to be an AL team looking to take him on.

To be honest, I think Thome wants to get to 600 HRs. If he goes one more full season, he's got a fair chance of hitting that. If he gets regular at bats then he should be able to get 30+ HRs this year and that will put him right there. I'm sure he'll play for the highest bidder, but at this point I think he'd play for free.



Well that's it for now. I might revisit this later with Justin Douchebaggererererer, Carlos Delgado, Pedro Martinez, Coco Crisp, Brett Myers, and Mark DeRosa.


Joke of the Day: What's the difference between an SUV and a Nike Golf Ball? Tiger can drive a Nike Golf Ball 300 yards without hitting a tree - BOOM!