NFL Picks Week 9

Here we go again sports fans! Another full slate of football and the VendorBall staff is all over it again. For those who didn't follow - last week Tim, Dan, and Kyle all lost to a lowly coin flip. Well not looking good for those of us who try and pick 'em, but we're coming back with a vengeance this week. Coin, you're going down! But first, Tim lays his unbeaten record on the line with FIVE picks this week! Sweet Brady!

Tim's Picks of the Week

Tim's Record: 2-0-1

Arizona at St. Louis
1:00 on FOX
Commentators: Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick
Line: Arizona -3

So the Rams win 2 straight, then go into Foxboro and hang tough with the Pats for 55 minutes, and now they’re back home and getting no respect once again. The public is all over Arizona with almost 3 out of every 4 bets coming in on the Cardinals, yet the line is starting to weaken off the key number of 3 indicating heavy sharp plays on St. Louis. Arizona is 1-3 on the road and is giving up, on average, 30 points per game away from the desert. Yikes. Sure, it’s Kurt Warner’s homecoming, but I’ll take the Rams +3 to play the spoiler role.


Miami at Denver
4:05 on CBS
Commentators: Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf
Line: Denver -3.5

Denver, look, it’s like this: Until you prove to me that you can stop a pee wee team, I’m going to keep fading you. Miami could line up with the Icebox running the Wildcat this weekend and she’d run all over you. You made Matt Cassel look like Bart Starr on Monday night. For Miami, Chad Pennington is having a pretty productive season so far. Whether or not anyone decides to notice is another story. Of course Jay Cutler and the Broncos offense are no slouches either, but this game may come down to whoever has the ball last. 2/3 of the action is on Denver here, mainly because the public perception is that Miami is still the worst team in the league. I’ll take the Dolphins +3.5 and make Denver prove to me they can stop them.


Atlanta at Oakland
4:15 on FOX
Commentators: Matt Vasgersian and J.C. Pearson
Line: Atlanta -3

If there’s one team out there that everyone loves to bet against, it’s the Raiders. They might be the most dysfunctional organization in pro sports right now. But hey, if you want to give them up as a home underdog every week, I’ll most likely take you up on the offer. Everyone has seemingly fallen in love with Atlanta with Matt Ryan and Michael Turner (hey, look, a guy named Turner running things in Atlanta) taking charge of the offense, but let’s not forget this team is pretty bad on the road. 1-3 straight up and against the spread and they’re 1-3 when playing on grass. (3-0 on turf). It’s their second road game in a row, coming cross-country after putting up a fight in Philly last week. They also have a huge divisional home game next week vs New Orleans so my guess is they might be looking past lowly Oakland here. I’ll take the Raiders +3.


New England at Indianapolis
8:30 on NBC
Commentators: Al Michaels and John Madden
Line: Indianapolis -6

What looked in August to be the marquee regular season matchup of the year has turned into each team desperately trying to figure out some semblance of an identity. More so for Indy who limps home after a beatdown in Tennessee on Monday night. Can you believe the Colts sit at 3-4? If they lose Sunday night they could be in last place in the AFC South. The Patriots can breathe a little easier as they enter at 5-2 but are still tied atop the division with the upstart Buffalo Bills. It’s been a long time since the Pats have been 6-point underdogs but I think this line is where it should be. I hate to do it again, but I think Peyton is going to have a field day throwing all over the Pats secondary (who are some of these guys the Pats trot out there on defense?!?). Philip Rivers picked them apart on Sunday night two weeks ago and I think we’re going to see a repeat performance from Manning this week. I don’t like to lay chalk but I’ll do it here in what is an absolute must-win game for Indianapolis. Colts –6

Pittsburgh at Washington
8:30 Monday on ESPN
Commentators Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, Tony Kornheiser
Line: Washington -2

Monday Night Football in our Nation’s capital on the eve of the Election. Now there’s a pretty significant betting angle in this game that I’m sure most of you are not aware of. The final Redskins home game before an election can be pretty revealing. You see, dating back to 1936, if the Redskins win their final home game before a presidential election, the incumbent party wins the election. If the Redskins lose, the new party takes office. It’s a remarkable trend that’s been accurate 17 out of a possible 18 elections (94.4%). The only time the theory didn’t hold true was in 2004 when the Redskins lost to the Packers on MNF, but George Bush won the election keeping the Republicans in office (Kyle's note: Did Bush really win that election?). With that said, I’ll take Pittsburgh +2. Obama looks like a winner, so keeping with the trend, Pittsburgh should come out of D.C. with the W.


Staff Picks (and that damn coin)

Standings

Coin 6-6-2
Tim 5-7-2
Kyle 5-7-2
Dan 4-8-2


New York Jets +6 @ Buffalo

Tim: Buf -6. Bills regain first place with a win.
Dan: Buf -6. Favre gets torched by Bills' secondary.
Kyle: Buf -6. They won't lose two division games in a row. Welcome back Brett "3 INT" Favre
Coin: Buf -6.


Detroit +13 @ Chicago

Tim: Chi -13. If it’s possible for the Lions to score negative points, today’s the day.
Dan: Chi -13. Like Cincy, points are never enough with the Lions.
Kyle: Chi -13. Detroit has allowed a 118 passer rating this year: Happy Birthday Kyle Orton.
Coin: Det +13.


Jacksonville -7.5 @ Cincinnati

Tim: Cin +7.5. Ohio teams make it back to back covers vs the Jags.
Dan: Jac -7.5.Points are never enough with the Bengals.
Kyle: Jac -7.5. Allowing 150 rush yards per game will not help you beat a good running team.
Coin: Cin +7.5.


Baltimore +1.5 @ Cleveland

Tim: Bal +1.5. McGahee’s topped 100 yards in 3 of 4 vs Cle.
Dan: Bal +1.5. Browns haven't learned to win yet.
Kyle: Bal +1.5. Did you know Cle allows only 17.6 points per game? I'll take the under here too, please.
Coin: Bal +1.5.


Tampa Bay -8.5 @ Kansas City

Tim: TB -8.5. Herm won’t be playing to win the game.
Dan: TB -8.5. Despite loss in Big D, Bucs have looked strong. They take down KC by a wide margin.
Kyle: TB -8.5. Not biting here - Tyler Thigpen goes back to sucking against a tough TB Defense.
Coin: TB -8.5


Houston +4.5 @ Minnesota

Tim: Hou +4.5. Offense is hitting on all cylinders right now.
Dan: Hou +4.5. The Vikes are expected to get past the Texans' D with no QB?
Kyle: Hou +4.5. Minnesota is strong against the run, so Matt Schaub will have to beat them... which he will.
Coin: Min -4.5


Arizona -3 @ St. Louis

Tim: StL +3. (see above)
Dan: StL +3. Showed a lot of heart last week against the Pats. Cards should be no match.
Kyle: Ari -3. If you don't know who Tim Hightower is, then your ass better CALL SOMEBODYYYYYY!!!!
Coin: StL +3.


Green Bay +4.5 @ Tennessee

Tim: GB +4.5 The old “team that covered on MNF doesn’t cover next out” angle
Dan: Ten -4.5. Love the Pack, but the Titans are too hot, playing especially well at home.
Kyle: Ten -4.5. Tennessee is a force, and I don't see GB to be the team to break it up.
Coin: GB +4.5.


Miami +3.5 @ Denver

Tim: Mia +3.5. (see above)
Dan: Den -3.5. Dolphins coming off a big win, but can't handle Mile High just yet.
Kyle: Den -3.5. Denver at home - they better not disappoint me.
Coin: Den -3.5.


Dallas +9 @ New York Giants

Tim: Dal +9. I’ll take 9 points in a rivalry game even if Quincy Carter were taking the snaps.
Dan: NYG -9. Without Romo, this is no contest. G-Men take care of business.
Kyle: Dal +9. Giants D looks good, but it is a rivalry. This should be close.
Coin: Dal +9.


Atlanta -3 @ Oakland

Tim: Oak +3. (see above)
Dan: Atl -3. Ryan marches the troops into the black hole and comes out alive.
Kyle: Atl -3. Yes I'd like to hop on the Falcons bandwagon, please.
Coin: Oak +3.


Philadelphia -6.5 @ Seattle

Tim: Sea +6.5. East Coast teams going West haven’t fared well.
Dan: Phi -6.5. Seahawks have looked miserable this season. McNabb & Co march out of Qwest with a W.
Kyle: Phi -6.5. Seattle's defense isn't even playing well.
Coin: Phi -6.5.


New England +6 @ Indianapolis

Tim: Ind -6. (see above)
Dan: NE +6. Seriously? The Colts are giving points in this one?
Kyle: NE +6. I'm starting to think Indy just isn't that good.
Coin: Ind -6.


Pittsburgh +2 @ Washington

Tim: Pit +2. (see above)
Dan: Pit +2. Redskins are no match for the AFC's second-best club.
Kyle: Pit +2. O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA! O Barrack me Obamadeus!
Coin: Was -2.