Warming Up the Stove

After taking some time away from baseball, I think it's time to dive back in. The stove is warming up quickly, as this could be a big off-season in terms of free agent signings and trades. In the interest of... well interest, we're going list-style! Two lists - one for free agents, one for potential trades, and we'll count down the x most interesting stories in each category, where x is a random integer between 0 and 100 (yes, I'm letting my nerd show a little, big whoop, wanna fight about it!?)

Free Agents
Just the free agent class here - some interesting stories at the top (well the bottom of this list, physically, but the lowest numbers)

Mid Levels

40) Braden Looper, SP. Could find himself at the back end of any number of rotations. He pitches all right, but is never dominant, but he can give you 180 innings. Probably a low pricetag so he could go to a small market team like the Royals, or Pirates, but a team like the Rangers, or Twins might take a chance on him, too.

39)Curt Schilling, SP. Schill has expressed interest in coming back for another year. Honestly, it's pretty obvious to me he wants to make it into the Hall of Fame and needs some more wins in order to get there with certainty (he's currently borderline). I don't see the Sox bringing him back, as they're likely to go with their young guns. He could find a home back in Philadelphia, or in Pittsburgh for a short salary, since it is about beefing up his numbers, not the money. He'd be best served in a pitcher-friendly NL ballpark.

38) Mark Grudzielanek, IF. The aging infielder may have another year or two left in his MLB career. A slightly below average hitter but solid fielder has some backup IF left in him, but he could continue to start at 2B for the Royals. I expect him to go back to KC.

37) Mark Loretta, IF. Solid fielder, and an average bat, with good on-base ability, a small step up from Grudzielanek. One of those guys who can backup or play every day and is just a solid teammate. If the Red Sox don't bring Cora back they could make a run at Mark. Otherwise look at any number of teams to bring in the versatile infielder.

36) Paul Byrd, SP. After a rough season with Cleveland, Byrd upped his offseason value with a strong late-season showing with the Sox. A finesse pitcher who can give you innings, Byrd's optimal location would be a big ballpark, and those places can probably use a pitcher. I like the Pirates, Royals, and Padres to drop a couple million on Byrdie.

35) Frank Thomas, 1B/DH. A Hall-of-Famer deciding whether to hang 'em up or to push forward for another year. He struggled last year with a quadriceps injury so he may decide to retire, but if we've noticed anything in the last few years, is that the spring turns players minds. The A's, or Rays could try and win his services for next year, as he can still spank the ball with the best of them.

34) Jon Garland, SP. Except for his one all-star season in 2005, Jon Garland has been a very predictable pitcher. A back of the rotation, inning eater who will give you around a .500 performance and 200 innings and 32 starts. Some team will be willing to jump on his consistency, and I like the Marlins, Rockies, Giants, and Padres for the cheap arm.

33) Moises Alou, LF. Despite not playing in 100 game for the last few season, Moises Alou continues to prove that he can play "hit ball with stick" at a Major League level. He might have fallen off too much to play the field everyday with any effectiveness, but a DH/platoon role could suit him if the right AL team came calling. I like the Rays for him, since they need the DH and depth help and can likely afford his low price.

32) Jamie Moyer, SP. I know he had a good year last year, but I cannot consider a 46-year-old, soft-tossing lefty a great signing. That said, I think the Phillies take him back for 2009, cause apparently he never wants to retire.

31) Randy Wolf, SP. You can pretty much expect an ERA in the mid-4.00's and around 160-180 innings from Mr. Wolf. A back of the rotation guy he can give you innings, occasionally quality innings, but not much else. He is a lefty which presents matchup problems for some teams, but he's a solid arm to add to a rotation. The Mets, Orioles, Rangers, Mariners, and Astros could make a play.

30) Ivan Rodriguez, C. At 37, he's not the Pudge we remember from the late 90's, but the career .301 hitter can still catch a game and hit. He may not be able to cope with a full season behind the dish, but for a platoon role behind the plate and some time at 1B/DH would be good. An interesting option for the Rays, but could also go back to Detroit, to KC, or even the O's.

29) Casey Blake, 3B/OF. Blake is a solid player, and you know exactly what you're getting with him. Sadly he is the cream of the 3B free-agent crop. So any team looking to add a third-basemen might need to give Blake an offer. Because of this, he might command a fairly high salary compared to what he would otherwise make - demand drives the market. Look for the White Sox and Dodgers to make a play at him.

28) Raul Ibanez, OF. How this guy is a type-A free agent is beyond me. He hits in the .280's with 20 homers and 90 RBI, which is solid but this is not a Type-A guy. Whatever, the OF needs a home and Seattle isn't about to pony up and give him a good contract. In fact, we think here that they should firesale their big contracts (Ichiro, Silva, Washburn, Beltre, and Batista) and build for 2011 or 2012. Anyhow, Ibanez should find a home with the Mets, Braves, Rays or perhaps the DBacks.


Taking a Chance
Guys who have been hurt, or that you can't necessarily count on for some reason. Think of it as High Risk/High Reward.

27) Kenshin Kawakami, SP. One of the best pitchers in Japan, this 34-year-old is looking for work over in America. We have seen mixed results from players coming from Japan over to the States - from the success of Ichiro, to the failure of Hideki Irabu and everywhere inbetween (Dice-K? So Taguchi?). So when getting a player from Japan it's tough to know exactly what you're getting, unless you can see him against major league hitters. That said, I think he goes to either the Red Sox, Cubs or the Dodgers - some place where some Japanese players are already playing, and can afford his pricetag.


26) Mark Prior, SP. Now begins the run of injured pitchers. Prior is the most intriguing hurler of the bunch because of his age (27) and his once dominant stuff. He hasn't pitched since early in 2006 and three years later, some team is going to take a shot on him. Prior could sign an incentive laden deal somewhere where they aren't counting on him to necessarily pitch at the major league level. This is just the kind of signing that the Red Sox like to make (ala Bartolo Colon), and they can afford big incentives. If not them, then I think it'll be a larger market team who needs an emergency starter - Cardinals, White Sox, Angels, and Astros are others.

25) Carl Pavano, SP. A 4 year, $40 Mil. deal, and Pavano pitched a grand total of 145.2 innings of a 9-8 record. I'd be more obnoxious, but Matt Clement was also a bust. Anyhow, someone wants to give this guy a contract, and it might be the Marlins - the last place he pitched effectively. Common sense says he owes the Yankees a cheap year, but he'll probably go with the money. Look for an incentive driven deal with the fish.

24) Brad Penny, SP. From third place in the Cy Young voting in '07 to a 6.27 ERA in 97 innings in '08. That is an epic fall off for a generally solid pitcher. This was the year after Penny's first 200 inning season since 2001. And again, in 2002 he was ineffective. I think we've learned something here. Now where does Penny end up? Back pitching for the Dodgers, makes sense, especially with Lowe leaving for the market.

23) Ken Griffey, Jr., OF. On the downside of what will undoubtedly be a Hall-of-Fame career, Griffey will be looking for a new home, probably to end his career. Seattle would be a sentimental way to go out, and would probably be a draw for some of their fans, despite potentially setting the organization back a year or two. Let's hope the Seattle brass agrees in some way, and bring him back for a goodbye season or two at a discount.

22) Jason Varitek, C. Tek is getting old, and his productivity has gone down. The Red Sox fan favorite is up for a new contract, and Boras wants him to get a Posada deal (4 years, 13.1M/yr). The Sox may bite and give it to him (sadly), but I doubt they will. In fact, I don't think anyone will bite on that. I think the Sox will look to get younger and more productive from the catching position by trading with Texas for one of their young catchers (Saltalamacchia or Laird). Varitek could end up with Detroit under a short term deal.

21) Jason Isringhausen, CP. The injury Izzy suffered last year may end his career. If not, he could look to come back and pitch a little more for some team looking to bolster their bullpen. The Marlins, Tigers, Braves, and Pirates may be a match if he's willing to take a discount. However, he is just as likely to hang up the spikes for good.

20) Kerry Wood, RP. Like Mark Prior, Wood has had a problem staying healthy. Moreover, he's in line to lose his closers job in Chicago to Carlos Marmol, who looks to be primed to take the position. Does Wood find a job outside of Chicago? I doubt it, I think the Cubs bring him back as a middle reliever who can close if need be and can potentially be stretched out and make a few starts.

19) Chad Cordero, RP/CP. A 27 year-old coming off of surgery for his biceps tendon and labrum aren't always high on teams "to get" lists. Cordero, though, is a young, talented reliever, who will find a home on the back end of someone's bullpen. He expects to be ready by spring training this year, but that might be a little optimistic given his condition. I think Oakland, the Giants, or the Rangers roll the dice and try to grab him with a 2-4 year deal.

18) Oliver Perez, SP. Inconsistency thy name is Oliver. Perez is a lefty with a hard fastball and a wicked slider. However, he's plagued by walks and gives up too many gopher balls. At only 27, he's one of the few guys you might want to take a chance on for a long term deal, perhaps laden with incentives. It could be a good fit for a middle of the road team to try this guy as a middle of the rotation starter, but the Mets have the interest to bring him back to NY, and that's probably where he'll go. If not, I like the Giants and White Sox to make a run.

17) Milton Bradley, OF/DH. After setting career highs in Batting Average (.323), RBI (77), HRs (22), OBP (.436) and SLG (.563), Bradley is still not going to get a big, lucrative contract. First, we know he benefit from hitting near Josh Hamilton who had a half season of tearing the cover off the ball. We do not know whether he'll be able to repeat that performance anywhere else. Second, he's also a known mental case, who only played more than 130 games one season. So can anyone put up with his mental capacities long enough to let him produce? Can he produce at all without a strong hitter behind him? Good question. I think we'll see a basement dwelling team take a shot on him.

16) Ryan Dempster, SP. Dempster made his move nack to the starting rotation this year and had a lot of success... in the regular season anyway. He threw over 200 innings, and kept his ERA under three. He wants to explore the free agent market, but I think that he ends up back in a Cubs uniform, and with Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden, he'll help make up a strong Cubs rotation for 2009. No one else will pay Dempster what the Cubs will, since he just came off his first 200 inning season since 2002.


All-Star-ish Caliber
Not that these guys have all been or will be all-stars, but they're solid MLB players and you pretty much know what you're getting with them

15a) Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte, SP. Both of these guys will either retire or play for the Yankees. Not much to discuss here, but figured I should slide them in here.

15) Brian Fuentes, CP. Anyone who wanted Francisco Rodriguez will end up trying to settle for Fuentes. The lefty recorded 30 saves last year, strikes out better than a batter an inning for his career, and will be a consistent back end of any bullpen. The Mets will try to pick him up if they can't get at K-Rod, and likewise, the Tigers may show some interest. The Rangers may make a run if they decide they actually want to win this year, too.

14) Edgar Renteria, SS. When will Renteria learn that he is not cut out to play in the American League? Posting some of his lowest numbers since he played in Boston, that 10M/yr. contract is finally up. So now what? Detroit still needs a shortstop, as will the White Sox. But the fit for Rent-A-Wreck is the National League. Reports say that the Cardinals are intrigued by the idea of bringing him back, and I couldn't agree more.

13) Orlando Cabrera, SS. O-Cab put forth yet another season as we've come to expect. Good BA, drew some walks, not a lot of power, but stole some bases, while playing strong defense at shortstop. O-Cab has moved around in sync with Edgar Renteria (their contracts seem to always be up in the same year), so since he's on the move, he could go over to Detroit, or stay with the White Sox (I'm under the impression Ozzie likes him). On the other hand, the Cardinals might want to move for him if they can't get Rentie.

11) Orlando Hudson, 2B. Hudson is above average in batting average and fielding, but doesn't hit for power or take enough walks. That said, he is a second baseman, and there are very few talented second basemen in the league (how lucky are the Sox to have Pedroia?!). Despite not taking enough walks or stealing bases, his OPS has increased with respect to the league every year, which points to him being a smart hitter. I think the Cardinals sign him for something in the high single digits.

10) Bobby Abreu, RF. After another productive year in pinstripes, Abreu will look to get a new contract, and probably the kind of money he got from the Yankees the last few years (~15M/yr). He's still hitting for some power (20 HRs in '08), stealing bases (20 in '08), and drawing a lot of walks (73 in '08) although that number has declined in the power-packed Yankee lineup. There should be a lot of takers for Abreu, but he might get lost in the shuffle with all the free agents. Since he's a lefty, I don't think the Phillies will be interested. The Yankees may try to bring him back for a short term deal, or anyone who couldn't fill their roster with Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, or Adam Dunn. If the Marlins try to make their once-every-6-years run, they could try to cut him a deal and then fire-sale him after the run.

9) Pat Burrell, LF. Coming down on his high after winning the World Series, "The Best Hitter Nobody Fears" is now a free agent. He has already turned down a 2 year, $22M offer from the Phils, so he'll be trying his luck elsewhere, probably looking to get up to the $14M he was paid last year for his services. I don't know where the Phillies are going to find a right-handed bat to protect lefties Utley and Howard instead, but Burrell has been consistent enough to be one of those guys who ends up anywhere. I think the AL makes sense for him as a DH, despite being only 32. The Orioles could sign him to a big deal, continuing their trend at signing overrated players at too much money. He'd be a better fit with the Jays, and would be a smart signing by the Yanks, or the Angels if they decline Garrett Anderson's option.

8) Adam Dunn, LF. The quintessential Billy Beane guy: low batting average, lots of walks and lots of power. Could he end up in Oakland? I doubt it, but only because he'll demand a salary a bit too high for the A's. The Mets need an outfielder, as do the Diamondbacks. He has also, reportedly, expressed interest in being reunited with Austin Kearns, which would move him to Washington. Although that's not signing a pitcher, that's a good first move. If the Rays want to shock with a big free agent signing - I think this is the guy.

7) Derek Lowe, SP. Lowe floundered a bit in the playoffs this year, and is 36. Lowe will be looking for a 3-4 year deal and probably for less money than most of the big name pitchers on the market (and boy are there a ton). He makes for a smart signing for a team trying to make a run but not wanting to spend a ton of money on a front-of-the-line guy. Sound like the Mets to you? Yeah, me too. He'll also draw interest from the Brewers, Cardinals, White Sox, Tigers, Rangers, Angels, Braves, Astros and Yankees. Yes, consistency will do that for you.

6) Ben Sheets, SP. Sheets has been injury prone over the year. He hasn't topped 200 innings since 2004, and despite pitching 194 this year, he did not pitch in the playoffs. That said Sheets has dominant stuff including a giant curve. Someone will take him for some big money - maybe 17M + incentives - and take their chances on his arm. The Yankees could make a play if they don't sign CC Sabathia, and the Tigers are looking for an arm, too. The Brewers have already made him an offer, but I think he ends up leaving. Look for the Dodgers or Cardinals to try and pick him up for a short term deal, and have him prove he can stay healthy. If the Nationals or Orioles want to make a splash in the rotation, this might be their chance.

The Big Boys
You'll see the same few teams mentioned over and over here - remember, these guys will command a lot of money, and only a few teams can really make plays at them.

5) A.J. Burnett, SP. After missing time over two seasons with injuries, A.J. Burnett finally pitched a full season with the Blue Jays and helping them to the lowest ERA of any Major League team. Despite pitching a ton of innings (221) and racking up 231 strikeouts (good for first in the AL), his ERA was up at 4.06. Though not stunning, his DIPS ERA (a sabermetric value for expected ERA based on strikeouts & home runs and whatnot) was 3.47. So, as the Baseball Prospectus crowd would say: "He's a victim of bad luck." Agreed. Solid pitcher, and you've got to like a guy who eats up innings with quality stuff. The Jays are making a serious run at him, and the Yankees might put a bid in there, too. The Brewers are losing a lot of their rotation and could make a push. If the Mets want to sure up their rotation they could be a player.

4) Francisco Rodriguez, CP. I am not big fan of paying a lot of money to any kind of reliever. Now, K-Rod (as he's commonly known) is looking for 5 years and probably around $15/yr. Thankfully, teams with a closer won't have to worry about that deal. K-Rod had a ton of saves (62) last year, but did not have great numbers - blowing 7 saves, with an OBP against at .316 which does not help project well for the future. He has also been weak in the playoffs the last two years - getting hammered by the Red Sox. Now, while I'm not high on K-Rod, he does have good stuff and does have a closer's mentality. A good fit for him would be the Tigers who desperately need an anchor in the back of that bullpen but won't pony up the cash, The Angels may try to sign him too, but also won't come up that money. The Mets could also make a play, but I don't see anyone coming with that money.

3) Manny Ramirez, LF/DH. The drama Ramirez has surrounded himself has been forgotten due to his good nature and frantic hitting. Long forgotten was his disgruntled play in Boston, and now he wants to be the highest paid player in baseball. Well, actually, from what I know about Manny he doesn't necessarily care, but Boras sure as hell wants him to be. I think as long as Manny could play ball, make around $15M, and not be bothered outside the baseball park he'd be happy. So he should stay in L.A. to end his career, but Boras will have him going elsewhere, for more years. The Dodgers will pay him for 2 years, but I think the Mets will beef up and give him 4 years at around $27.5M. Also look for the Yankees to get involved for that eff-you-Boston factor.

2) Mark Teixeira, 1B. Tex was a beast for the Angels over the last half of the year, and even performed all right in the playoffs (recall: all singles). Tex brings elite defense and solid switch hitting offense for the middle of any lineup. There haven't been a lot of switch hitters who could fit into the middle of a lineup, so it's a nice luxury to have. The Angels desperately want to bring him back, but he's also being poked at by the Red Sox, and I imagine we'll see the Yankees in the hunt. The Orioles are said to be making a run, and if the Dodgers don't sign Manny they may want to kick the tires. Basically, every team in the majors without a solid first basemen going into the year (and even a few who do) will be looking at Tex. I like the Yankees here since they'll be looking for a first baseman, and they've got the money.

1) CC Sabathia, SP. The big, oft overweight southpaw carried the Brewers on his hefty shoulders and carried them to the playoffs. But as people seem to be forgetting, he did yet another Major League choke job in the playoffs. Was it a function of the number of innings he threw? Perhaps. Or it could be that he sucks in the playoffs. That aside, he will command "Johan Santana money" (~23M/yr) wherever he goes. Some reports say that he wants to pitch in his home state of California and he really likes pitching in the N.L. (Hmm, the N.L. West... interesting "coincidence" that there are a grand total of zero good hitters in that league), so some are thinking that the Dodgers might make a run at him. But as he's managed by the soulless Scott Boras who cares nothing for that malarkey (meaning, client preferences) and wants to get paid, I expect he'll end up in Yankee pinstripes with some preposterous contract.


Written by Kyle Baxter: Baseball Whore