Sox Offense for 2010

A lot of todo is being made and will continue to be made about the Red Sox offense this year. And such will be the subject of my return-to-the-blogosphere post. Now, in a series where the Red Sox offense and bullpen really let them down, you can only expect the "experts" and pundits to clamor for a revamping of the offense. The bullpen really had a great year and I don't see much being made of that. That said, I am also not a believer in the "one closer" thing. But that is a discussion for another time.

The offense looked suspect down the stretch and played awful in the playoffs. So where do we upgrade. I'd like to take a quick look - position by position - by the numbers for this season.

Catcher

The catcher duties were split between Varitek and Martinez. However, going into next season we can probably expect V-Mart to be the (nearly) every day catcher with Varitek and Lowell splitting the extra time. Let's look at V-Mart's numbers:

Martinez: 588 AB; 178 H; 88 R; 23 HR; 108 RBI; .303/.381/.480

Where an OPS of .861 is nothing to write home about, for a catcher you are not going to find better. Also, I would bet that we won't be paying $5M for 'Tek for next year. There's a decent chance that we go with V-Mart and Kottaras, however if we are going to let Tek catch two games out of the rotation and on those days shifting Youk over to third and letting Mart playing 1st, that makes sense. You could do worse than that. That said, we are not going to get an improvement for split time if we believe that Martinez cannot catch every day. Of course, after this year, Mart is done in Boston and we'll be trying to sign Mr. Mauer.

First Base

Youkilis has been manning both infield corners for the Sox over the last couple of years. Let's just take a quick look at his stats:

Youkilis: 491 AB; 150 H; 99 R; 27 HR; 94 RBI; .305/.413/.548

Youkilis is signed through 2012 with an option for 2013 so Youilis is not going anywhere. Besides, his OBP ranked 2nd in the AL (behind Mauer), 5th in slugging, and 2nd in OPS. So let's just move right along.

Second Base

Dustin Pedroia had a bit of a hangover after his MVP year in 2008. However, the scrappy second baseman did not put up shabby numbers. Let us take a quick look.

Pedroia: 626 AB; 185 H; 115 R; 15 HR; 72 RBI; 20 SB; 8 CS; .296/.371/.447

Pedroia's numbers were fine this year, though not quite as good as last year. He is signed for a fair price through 2013 with an option for 2014. So we could end this conversation here. But I can't let this go without a little more analysis. Pedroia was 2nd in OBP among AL second basemen and 4th in OPS. This is in a league that featured studs like Ben Zobrist, Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts, Aaron Hill, and Alberto Callaspo. That said, we are not moving away from Pedey.


Third Base

So we are looking at Mike Lowell here.

Mike Lowell: 445 AB; 129 H;, 54 R; 17 HR; 75 RBI; .290/.337/.474

Where these numbers aren't bad, there are some things working against Lowell here. First, those are not great corner infield numbers. They are not bad, though, and plenty of teams wouldn't mind having him, but probably not for the $12M he is slated to make next year. However, that will be the last year of his contract, and if the right deal comes along, the Sox might find some space to upgrade.


Short Stop

Shortstop for the Sox has been a bit of a revolving door this season. We went with Nick Green for a while, but he is not of Major League Caliber, offensively or defensively. He has no place on the roster next year. Jed Lowrie looked nothing like a major league hitter this year, hitting .147 in 68 at bats, and is average-ish in the field. Alex Gonzalez fared much better, with a respectable line of .284/.316/.453 although those numbers belie his true hitting ability. His career average is .247 and OBP an unsightly .294. Does he earn it with his stellar defense? Probably. However, here is another place we can afford an upgrade however there are few names out there. Orlando Cabrera, and Miguel Tejada head the list. Cabrera might be the most obvious name here, and with a career OPS of .720 (.275 BA) he has the combination of offense and defense that could fit in here.

You'll notice the lack of true stats here. This is the toughest call to make and I am not sure how to call it yet. The Sox getting Cabrera I think would make the most sense, but we will revisit this later in the offseason.

Outfield

The outfield this season was manned by J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Canadian Jason Bay. Bay is in the last year of his contract and didn't sign an extension. Here are the numbers:

Drew: 452 AB; 126 H; 84 R; 24 HR; 68 RBI; .279/.392/.522
Ellsbury: 624 AB; 188 H; 94 R; 8 HR; 10 3B; 70 SB; 12 CS; .301/.355/.415
Bay: 531 AB; 142 H; 103 R; 36 HR; 119 RBI; 13 SB; 3 CS; .267/.384/.537

I have so much hatred here. Mostly, I hate J.D. Drew and yet his end-of-the season numbers look pretty good. His .392 OBP is good enough for 9th in the AL, and his OPS is 10th. Jason Bay checks in 9th in OPS in the AL, while Ellsbury lead the league in steals while batting over .300. So where do we deviate here? We could let Jay-Bay walk and go after a Matt Holliday. However you'll note that Holliday did not fare well in Oakland. I think we'll end up seeing Bay resign, for lack of better options and get Drew money.


DH

David Ortiz struggled mightily this year from the DH slot and got off to a super-slow start. Let's see where his stats ended up:

Ortiz: 541 AB; 129 H; 77 R; 99 RBI; .238/.332/.462

The OPS under .800 is a big no-no for a DH in a big-market city. Now everyone has been hearing "Papi is done" all year. But let me throw some numbers out there. Here are his numbers from June 1 to the end of the year:

351 AB; 93 H; 27 HR; 78 RBI; .264/.356/.555

Those numbers look pretty good. If he could pull that through the whole year he would have had more than 40 HR, and more than 120 RBI while boasting an OPS over .900. No one would talk about getting rid of THAT guy, who is only on the books for $12.5M. He seems to be fully healed from wrist surgery and I would be surprised if they replaced him. Epstein is clever enough to know this and we won't get rid of Papi. This isn't a loyalty thing, this is a talented hitter who will continue to get the opportunity to hit.

So Where Do We Upgrade?

Well, the only question marks are at SS and at the corner infield. At SS, there is too much to worry about and taking a strong defender would be the best play. In fact, I would like to see them hang on to Alex Gonzalez. At corner infield, we would have to replace Lowell.

Lowell: 445 AB; 129 H; 54 R; 17 HR; 75 RBI; .290/.337/.474

Those numbers really aren't bad. If he played a full season he is probably a 20+ HR, 100+ RBI guy. Furthermore if he could manage to run still, he'd have some more infield hits and ground into fewer DPs. His speed is killing and affecting his defense, too. To upgrade here in the free agent market (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/2010-mlb-free-a.html) we would be looking at a guy like Chone Figgins or Adrien Beltre. Neither of those are huge upgrades over Lowell at the plate, though Figgins is intriguing. To upgrade at First Base there is Adam LaRoche - but not a great upgrade.

Through the trade market, it is known that Prince Fielder and Adrien Gonzalez are on the block. But the question of cost to obtain these guys is crazy. We could package a deal with Casey Kotchman, Mike Lowell, Michael Bowden, and cash and that wouldn't be enough. Then who do we add? Lars Anderson is coming off a tough year and not looking great against advanced pitching. Trading off Tazawa in this deal would zap the major-league ready minor league pitching talent (which is replaceable via free agency, given).

I just don't see the Sox making any offensive moves this offseason. Once they sign a LF (Bay, most likely) they will just look to round out the bench and perhaps address the pitching... but more on that later.