Staff Predictions: 2008 MLB Postseason

We'll focus mainly on the divisional round, and then give brief predictions afterward.

KYLE'S PICKS:

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Milwaukee Brewers (Wild Card) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (East Champion):

PREDICTION: Philadelphia Phillies in 4

ANALYSIS: Where it's hard to pick against C. C. Sabathia, it's also hard to forget that he has a postseason ERA of 7.17, so I'm withholding judgment on him. As for the others in the rotation, Dale Svenum is going with Gallardo in game 1, choosing talent over proven pitching. After C. C. this team does not have a lot of pitching, including a very shaky bullpen. Philadelphia also has a shaky starting rotation, with Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer (second!?), and either Joe Blanton (umm...), Brett Myers (really!?), Kyle Kendrick (oh no) or Adam Eaton (NO NO NO). However, despite their less-than-solid rotation, the Phils have a bullpen that has been rock solid all year. Add in an offense that puts up good numbers with Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Burrell in the center of the lineup, I'm going with Philly in this one.

Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles (West Champion) vs. Chicago Cubs (Central Champion)

PREDICTION: Chicago Cubs in 5

ANALYSIS: Sticking with the mantra that pitching wins championships (and believing that to be true), I have to like the Dodgers. This matchup will be full of excellent pitching, but I just like Lowe, Billingsly, and Kuroda right now more than Zambrano (too emotional), Dempster (too many innings) and Harden (poor playoff stats). Also, the Dodgers have a stronger, deeper bullpen, and a little guy named Manny hitting like a maniac, Kemp and Ethier who have been hitting well, and a manager who knows how to win playoff games. Not that Torre is a better manager than Lou, but a bad manager here could cost you the series (::cough:: GRADY LITTLE ::cough::).

However, I'm picking the Cubs. The Cubs pitching can hold them through the 6th inning where Samardzija-Marmol-Wood can close out the game. But we also have the Cubs who have a much more potent lineup than the Dodgers. The Dodgers have some bats, but the Cubbies can hurt you 1-8 (and 1-9 if Zambrano is in the game). Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Alfanso Soriano, etc. are just too many offensive weapons. So I predict a closely contested series and a lot of low scoring games, but when pitching is tight, you can look at batting and leadership. I think the Cubbies eke this one out with a 3-1 5th game victory.

And I want to note that it's a sin that the two best teams in the NL (in my opinion) are playing in the NLDS.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston Red Sox (Wild Card) vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (West Champion)

PREDICTION: Boston Red Sox in 5

ANALYSIS: Perhaps this is a hometown pick, but I like Lester, Beckett, and Dice-K more than Lackey, Santana, and Saunders in the playoffs. Trying to look at it objectively, we see the #2 offense in the league, and the #4 Pitching (.02 behind LAA) for Boston, and #10 offense and #3 pitching for Anaheim. In perspective - Boston scored 80 more runs than Los Angeles but let up only 1 more run. Similar starting pitching though I've said I like Boston's starters a hair more, because they are proven (Santana and Lackey have struggled in recent playoff series, where Lester and Beckett are BEASTS). The bullpens both look solid: Papelbon-Okie-Masterson-Lopez-Delcarmen vs. KRod-Shields-Oliver-Arredondo-Speier(bad year), but Boston's is a shade deeper, though both have been a little up and down, especially in the playoffs. With the logic from the last pick, I'm going with Boston here. Similar pitching, Boston scores runs at a better clip (even with Texeira and Hunter in the Angels' lineup).


Chicago White Sox (Central Champion) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (East Champion)

PREDICTION: Tampa Bay Rays in 4

ANALYSIS: Yes, I like Tampa. They're young, excited, spunky, with good pitching, timely hitting, a solid bullpen and they're not that "just happy to be here" Cinderella team. Despite Chicago's decent bullpen, they do not have the starters to take this series. Vazquez and Contreras have struggled, and Buehrle has not been consistent. Danks, who has been their best pitcher this year, just went on three days rest, so he won't be pitching until Game 2 at best (on three days rest again, in that case). The Rays pitching, on the other hand, has kept them afloat all season, including coming up with good performances when their team needed them the most. The Rays also have a knack for late heroics, which is a talent you cannot teach a team, and that is very important come playoff time.


ALCS
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: Tampa Bay Rays in 7 (This will be the most exciting series of the playoffs)

NLCS
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: Chicago Cubs in 4 (Yup, predicting a sweep for this one)

WORLD SERIES
Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays

PREDICTION: Chicago Cubs in 5 (Cubs fans... welcome to the other side! Come on in, the water's fine.)

MVP: Derrek Lee in one of those - Who do we give this to? MVPs (see last year when Lowell won it though it could have just as easily been Jacoby Ellsbury). There'll be no standout, but Lee will have a good series.


A few notes:
I think that LAD and BOS are the only two teams that can beat the Cubs this year. I keep wavering in my feelings during the NLDS series, but I think if they can get by the Dodgers, you'll see them in the World Series.
I think Boston has proven weak against the Rays, especially in close games (see "Another One Run Loss"), and that will hurt them in the playoffs.

DAN'S PICKS:

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Milwaukee Brewers (Wild Card) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (East Champion)
PREDICTION: Brewers in Five

ANALYSIS: This one actually has a pretty simple formula behind it. CC Sabathia tosses Games 2 and 5. CC Sabathia wins Games 2 and 5. Milwaukee needs only to capture one more game, and I think they will. They'll squeak by in Game 3 at home with Dave Bush on the mound – in a high-scoring affair – and close it out with Sabathia in Philadelphia. I understand CC's sordid history in the postseason, being far less than impressive against New York and eventual champion Boston last year. But it's hard to ignore what he's done since landing in Milwaukee. This is a man with a sub-2.00 ERA since entering the National League. He's throwing complete game shutouts left and right. He can't be beaten, and he won't be beaten.

As for the Phillies, the much-heralded champions of the N.L. East – they didn't have it last year and they don't have it this year. Their only postseason-caliber starter is Cole Hamels, and I'm not all that confident he'll take Game 1 at home. Hamels is on the brink of being a superstar pitcher, but he can't seem to jump over the line like Sabathia has. One advantage I'll give the Phightin' Phils is the bullpen. Anchored by Brad Lidge, they can shut a game down if they need to. Milwaukee can't say the same. Eric Gagne should tell you all you need to know.
Milwaukee should win a very competitive series in five games. Sabathia will lead the Brew Crew to the League Championship Series.

Los Angeles Dodgers (West Champion) vs. Chicago Cubs (Central Champion)
PREDICTION: Cubs in Four

ANALYSIS: Everyone wants to talk about Manny-this and Manny-that. Focus your attention on Ramirez and you'll miss the show being put on by the class of the National League: the Chicago Cubs. Behind a sparkling rotation featuring Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden, the Cubs are poised to make an historic postseason run. Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez are solid in the middle of the Chicago lineup, and will hammer the Los Angeles arms.
And plus…2008 is the Cubs' time to shine. No more billy goats, no more Bartman. They start making a statement in a strong, convincing four game victory over the Dodgers.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston Red Sox (Wild Card) vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (West Champion)
PREDICTION: Red Sox in Four

ANALYSIS: Would it be considered an upset if the Red Sox beat the Angels? Would it be considered an upset if the defending World Series Champions defeat a team they haven't lost a postseason game to since 1986? Friends, the answer is a resounding 'Yes.'

Lowell has been beaten up. So has Drew. As of last Friday, add ace Josh Beckett to that list. (Don't worry, Sox fans. He'll be on the mound in Game 3 with bells on.) They lost Ortiz for much of the year. Matsuzaka missed several starts. Tim Wakefield was battling back issues. Lugo has been out since…I can't remember when. Schilling has gone MIA. All that…and they only lost the division by two games. TWO. The Red Sox finished with 95 wins, the third-highest mark in the American League. They had more wins than any National League team but one (the beloved Cubbies).

And now, for the most part, Boston has returned to order. Minus Schilling and Lugo, everyone seems to be back (no pun intended, Wake). Jon Lester has emerged as the star everyone hoped and expected he'd be. Daisuke Matsuzaka went the entire season and only suffered three losses (one on the final weekend of the season).

Yes, I understand that the Angels' offense is dangerous with the addition of Mark Teixeira. I understand that their bullpen is throwing out of its mind right now. I understand that they finished with the American League's best record. I understand that they went 8-1 against Boston this season.

The Red Sox are healthy, experienced, and poised to make another run. Show me the team that can defeat Lester, Matsuzaka and Beckett.

Chicago White Sox (Central Champion) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (East Champion)
PREDICTION: Rays in Four

ANALYSIS: In short, the White Sox are running on fumes. The Rays will carry their success from the season into the first round and get by Chicago rather easily. The White Sox don't even have a starter set past Game 1 (Javier Vazquez, by the way). The likes of Shields, Kazmir and Sonnanstine should do the job just fine for Tampa Bay. I'll give the White Sox a game here out of respect.

League Championship Predictions

National League
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
PREDICTION: Cubs in Six

American League
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
PREDICTION: Red Sox in Five

World Series Predictions
Chicago Cubs (NL Champion) vs. Boston Red Sox (AL Champion)
PREDICTION: Red Sox in Seven
MVP: Jon Lester (BOS)